SECTION II – ESTIMATED REVENUE AND STAMPING FEE DISCUSSION

As depicted by several models and algorithms, the total premium and transactions outlook is more favorable than this current year.  The chart below shows predicted values for premium, transactions, and stamping fees for the next two years.  Please note that we expect stamping fees to decrease one more year in 2024 because 2023 included a substantial amount of revenue from the prior stamping fee rate applied to late filings.

Fiscal YearTransactionsPremiumStamping Fees
2022912,576$16,258,928,475$40,771,746
2023 (REVISED)995,726$16,533,711,177$33,670,112
9%2%-17%
20241,040,000$18,000,000,000$32,400,000
4%9%-4%
20251,100,000$20,000,000,000$36,000,000
6%11%11%

One key performance indicator (kpi) that we watch regularly is average premium per transaction. We observed a “dip” this year in average premium for all transactions, but as per the charts below, we should expect average premium to increase over the next couple of years.  However, when comparing this to an 8-9% inflation rate in 2022 and 2023, the average premium is less attractive. It will be interesting to see what inflation looks like in the upcoming years.

In this next section, we’ll look at our Tableau forecast models for NAICS codes (industry of the insureds), and top coverages.  These forecasts are based on multi-variate algorithms and use the Wilshire 5000 index as a base due to its high correlation with our market data.