{"id":1305,"date":"2022-05-31T17:05:23","date_gmt":"2022-05-31T17:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.slameeting.com\/bodoct2022\/?page_id=1305"},"modified":"2022-10-11T18:01:40","modified_gmt":"2022-10-11T18:01:40","slug":"analysis","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.slameeting.com\/bodoct2022\/analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Revenue Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast<\/h1>\n\n\n\n\n\n

2022 Revenue Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on actual premium received through September, the data models imply that we will collect $41M in registered stamping fees by the end of Fiscal Year 2022, based on a submitted premium of $16.4B. This is a result of a 23% increase in received premium from 2021 to 2022. We expect transaction counts to come in at around 920,000 (11% increase). After the discussion on 2022 results, we\u2019ll review some market performance analytics based on our NAICS codes (\u201cindustry of the insureds\u201d) and coverages.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Last Year\u2019s Results and Predictions<\/strong>
    1. SLA Stamping Committee\/Board Predictions for 2022 from the 2021 Stamping Meeting:
      1. In the 2021 Stamping Committee Meeting, we predicted 2022 premium to be $15.1B or 14% growth and stamping fees to be $38M.<\/li>
      2. Transactions were expected to grow 5% to 860,000.<\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol><\/li>
      3. This Year\u2019s Predictions (Remainder of 2022)<\/strong>
        1. Results of multiple forecasting models:
          1. In comparing the first three quarters of this year to last year, we are currently up 20% in premium and 10% in transactions. We expect a strong Q4 to push those numbers up some. [Exhibit A-1<\/a>]<\/li>
          2. Using the 2022 actual monthly premium numbers from Q1-Q3, I was able to forecast the remaining two months of Fiscal Year 2022 for premium using several models with a high degree of fit.<\/li>
          3. As shown in the second table with monthly numbers, we are on track to bring in over $3.6M per month for the remaining two months of this fiscal year, bringing us to approximately $41M by the end of 2022.  This represents a 23% increase over 2021 in stamping fees.  It is worth noting that 8-9% of this growth was possibly due to inflation. [Exhibit A-2<\/a>]<\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol><\/li>
          4. Market Performance for Q1-Q3 2022 over 2021<\/strong>
            1. Exhibit A-3 <\/a>shows 2022 market performance based on our NAICS codes (\u201cIndustry of the Insureds\u201d) for total premium and average premium per policy.<\/li>
            2. Exhibit A-4<\/a> shows 2022 market performance based on coverage codes for total premium and average premium per policy.<\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
              <\/div>\n\n\n\n

              Exhibits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

              A-1 \u2013 Q1-Q3 PERFORMANCE AGAINST 2021<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
              Period<\/td>Premium<\/td>Transactions<\/td>Avg. Prem\/Txn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Q1 - 3'2021<\/td>$10,041,226,682<\/td>622,655<\/td>$16,126<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Q1 - 3'2022<\/td>$12,008,307,471<\/td>685,695<\/td>$17,513<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              PCT Change<\/td>20%<\/td>10%<\/td>9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
              A-2 \u2013 FISCAL YEAR 2022 FINAL FORECAST<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
              Done Thru Sept'22<\/td>2021\/2022
              \nMonth<\/td>              		Created Transactions<\/td>Created Premium<\/td>Stamping Fees<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>12<\/td>73,258 <\/td> $1,209,545,443 <\/td>$3,023,864<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>1<\/td>72,011 <\/td> $1,163,844,847 <\/td>$2,909,612<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>2<\/td>73,099 <\/td> $1,104,224,113 <\/td>$2,760,560<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>3<\/td>87,690 <\/td> $1,585,853,050 <\/td>$3,964,633<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>4<\/td>80,267 <\/td> $1,671,386,857 <\/td>$4,178,467<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Actual<\/td>5<\/td>70,960 <\/td> $1,340,736,002 <\/td>$3,351,840<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>6<\/td>75,283 <\/td> $1,191,267,269 <\/td>$2,978,168<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>7<\/td>75,300 <\/td> $1,160,000,000 <\/td>$2,900,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>8<\/td>77,827 <\/td> $1,553,248,331 <\/td>$3,883,121<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>9<\/td>87,074 <\/td> $1,410,843,926 <\/td>$3,527,110<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>10<\/td>75,441 <\/td> $1,477,758,641 <\/td>$3,694,397<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated<\/td>11<\/td>76,268 <\/td> $1,499,636,525 <\/td>$3,749,091<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              <\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Estimated Totals:<\/td>FY'2022<\/td>924,477 <\/td> $16,368,345,003 <\/td> $40,920,863 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              <\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              <\/td>Created in 2021<\/td> 830,700 <\/td> $13,198,659,432 <\/td>$32,996,649<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              <\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              Percent Change (YOY):<\/td><\/td>11%<\/td>24%<\/td>24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
              <\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
              Fiscal Year<\/td>Premium\/%Over Prior Year<\/td>Revenue*<\/td>Basis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              2020<\/td>$11.15B \/ 18.1%<\/td>$24.5M<\/td>Actual results end of FY'20.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              2021<\/td>$13.2B \/ 18%<\/td>$33M<\/td>Actual results end of FY\u201921.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
              2022<\/td>$16.4B \/ 24%<\/td>$41M<\/td>Revised 2022 Estimate from Q3\u201922 Models. <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
              <\/div>\n\n\n