Revenue Forecast
2022 Revenue Prediction
Summary:
Based on actual premium received through September, the data models imply that we will collect $41M in registered stamping fees by the end of Fiscal Year 2022, based on a submitted premium of $16.4B. This is a result of a 23% increase in received premium from 2021 to 2022. We expect transaction counts to come in at around 920,000 (11% increase). After the discussion on 2022 results, we’ll review some market performance analytics based on our NAICS codes (“industry of the insureds”) and coverages.
- Last Year’s Results and Predictions
- SLA Stamping Committee/Board Predictions for 2022 from the 2021 Stamping Meeting:
- In the 2021 Stamping Committee Meeting, we predicted 2022 premium to be $15.1B or 14% growth and stamping fees to be $38M.
- Transactions were expected to grow 5% to 860,000.
- SLA Stamping Committee/Board Predictions for 2022 from the 2021 Stamping Meeting:
- This Year’s Predictions (Remainder of 2022)
- Results of multiple forecasting models:
- In comparing the first three quarters of this year to last year, we are currently up 20% in premium and 10% in transactions. We expect a strong Q4 to push those numbers up some. [Exhibit A-1]
- Using the 2022 actual monthly premium numbers from Q1-Q3, I was able to forecast the remaining two months of Fiscal Year 2022 for premium using several models with a high degree of fit.
- As shown in the second table with monthly numbers, we are on track to bring in over $3.6M per month for the remaining two months of this fiscal year, bringing us to approximately $41M by the end of 2022. This represents a 23% increase over 2021 in stamping fees. It is worth noting that 8-9% of this growth was possibly due to inflation. [Exhibit A-2]
- Results of multiple forecasting models:
- Market Performance for Q1-Q3 2022 over 2021
- Exhibit A-3 shows 2022 market performance based on our NAICS codes (“Industry of the Insureds”) for total premium and average premium per policy.
- Exhibit A-4 shows 2022 market performance based on coverage codes for total premium and average premium per policy.
Exhibits
A-1 – Q1-Q3 PERFORMANCE AGAINST 2021
| Period | Premium | Transactions | Avg. Prem/Txn |
| Q1 - 3'2021 | $10,041,226,682 | 622,655 | $16,126 |
| Q1 - 3'2022 | $12,008,307,471 | 685,695 | $17,513 |
| PCT Change | 20% | 10% | 9% |
A-2 – FISCAL YEAR 2022 FINAL FORECAST
| Done Thru Sept'22 | 2021/2022 Month | Created Transactions | Created Premium | Stamping Fees |
| Actual | 12 | 73,258 | $1,209,545,443 | $3,023,864 |
| Actual | 1 | 72,011 | $1,163,844,847 | $2,909,612 |
| Actual | 2 | 73,099 | $1,104,224,113 | $2,760,560 |
| Actual | 3 | 87,690 | $1,585,853,050 | $3,964,633 |
| Actual | 4 | 80,267 | $1,671,386,857 | $4,178,467 |
| Actual | 5 | 70,960 | $1,340,736,002 | $3,351,840 |
| Estimated | 6 | 75,283 | $1,191,267,269 | $2,978,168 |
| Estimated | 7 | 75,300 | $1,160,000,000 | $2,900,000 |
| Estimated | 8 | 77,827 | $1,553,248,331 | $3,883,121 |
| Estimated | 9 | 87,074 | $1,410,843,926 | $3,527,110 |
| Estimated | 10 | 75,441 | $1,477,758,641 | $3,694,397 |
| Estimated | 11 | 76,268 | $1,499,636,525 | $3,749,091 |
| Estimated Totals: | FY'2022 | 924,477 | $16,368,345,003 | $40,920,863 |
| Created in 2021 | 830,700 | $13,198,659,432 | $32,996,649 | |
| Percent Change (YOY): | 11% | 24% | 24% |
| Fiscal Year | Premium/%Over Prior Year | Revenue* | Basis |
| 2020 | $11.15B / 18.1% | $24.5M | Actual results end of FY'20. |
| 2021 | $13.2B / 18% | $33M | Actual results end of FY’21. |
| 2022 | $16.4B / 24% | $41M | Revised 2022 Estimate from Q3’22 Models. |