Revenue Forecast
2021 Revenue Prediction
Based on actual premium received through September, the data implies that we will bring in $32.5M in registered stamping fees by the end of 2021, based on a submitted premium of $13.5B. This is a result of a 21% increase in received premium from 2020 to 2021. We expect transaction counts to come in at around 820,000 (6% increase).
2020 Predictions
Stamping Committee/Board Predictions for 2020 from the 2019 Stamping Meeting:
- In the 2020 Stamping Committee Meeting, we predicted 2021 premium to be $11.7B or 8.1% growth and stamping fees to be $24.5M. [Exhibit A-1]
- Transactions were expected to grow 5.1% to 768,000 which we expect and to hold tight for the upcoming years at 5-7% growth. [Exhibit A-2]
- The stamping fee lag extended well into 2021, farther than what we had expected. 2021 stamping fees did not increase at the same rate as the premium. This appears to largely be due to broker backlogs from Covid-19; however, policies have been coming in less late this year. Average lag from effective date to filing date in in 2020 is 142 days and in 2021 it averaged 119 days. [Exhibit A-3]
2021 Predictions
Multiple Models were used, Outliers Releveled:
- Using the 2021 actual monthly premium numbers, we forecasted the remaining months of 2021 for premium using several models with a high degree of fit. [Exhibit A-4]
- As shown in the first table [Exhibit A-1] we are on track to bring in over $3M per month for the remaining three months of this fiscal year, bringing us to approximately $32.5M by the end of 2021. This represents a 33% increase over 2020 in stamping fees. Note that 12% of this increase was due to the stamping fee increase (still receiving prior stamping fee policies at first half of the year) and the other 21% was due to increased filed premium.
Revenue Forecast Exhibits
A-1: Monthly FORECAST FOR 2021 PREMIUM AND StAMPING FEES
Error
You are trying to load a table of an unknown type. Probably you did not activate the addon which is required to use this table type.
You are trying to load a table of an unknown type. Probably you did not activate the addon which is required to use this table type.
Error
You are trying to load a table of an unknown type. Probably you did not activate the addon which is required to use this table type.
You are trying to load a table of an unknown type. Probably you did not activate the addon which is required to use this table type.
A-1: Total Premium by Effective/Submitted Year (2005-2023) in $M
A-2: Transactions Count FORECAST By Year (2005-2023)
A-3: Monthly Average Number of Days Late for Late Filings
A-4: REsults of Forecasting Models Used to Predict 2021 Premium
| FISCAL YEAR | ||
| Averages fill-in model (9 Month Avg) | ||
| Transactions | Premium | Stamping Fees |
| 830,207 | 13,388,302,243 | 31,731,140 |
| Linear Forecast Model (2-year base) | ||
| Transactions | Premium | Stamping Fees |
| 840,990 | 13,923,948,809 | 33,070,257 |
| Linear Forecast Model (4-year base) | ||
| Transactions | Premium | Stamping Fees |
| 829,305 | 13,365,524,292 | 31,674,196 |
| Seasonal Model | ||
| Transactions | Premium | Stamping Fees |
| 815,636 | 13,428,066,238 | 33,570,166 |
| Average of All Models | ||
| Transactions | Premium | Stamping Fees |
| 829,034 | 13,526,460,395 | 32,511,440 |
NOTE1: Eliminating the July 2021 premium of $660M from PGE/Uber results between $11.7B-$12.1B in premium and $28.8M-$29.8M for 2021.
NOTE2: Average of all models with outliers removed results in $11.95B in premium and $29.8M in stamping fees.